Israel may have just pushed Iran across the nuclear line Nuclear weapons

Historians can well celebrate June 13, 2025, because the day the world crossed the line from which it can easily resign. Moving, which shocked the international community and sent the global market, Israel launched a large -scale military operation against Iran in the early hours of the morning, achieving targets of at least 12 provinces, including the capital, Tehran, and Tabris Northwest. Among the objectives were suspected of nuclear equipment, air protection systems and the homes and offices of senior military personnel. The Iranian state media confirmed the death of several senior commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The Israeli government officially confirmed responsibility for the attacks by naming the Leo of Campaign Operations. Iranian officials described it as the most direct war act for decades of a shadow conflict.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems to be trying to achieve two goals. First of all, Israeli officials are afraid that Iran is approaching the technical ability to build nuclear weapons – something Netanyahu has repeatedly promised, if necessary, by force. Secondly, Israel hopes that dramatic escalation will force Tehran to adopt a new nuclear, which is more favorable to the United States and the interests of Israel, including the removal of its enriched uranium stock. Just as Netanyahu has failed to destroy Hamas through military force, both goals can eventually serve only a wider regional war.

Although there has been a long time between Iran and Israel all the time, Friday’s events feel dangerously different. The scale, daring and consequence of the attack-and the almost defined Iranian reaction-raises the spectrum of regional conflict, which emits far from the traditional boundaries.

Since 2011, the Arab Spring has been played throughout the region in the Saudi Arabian and Iran Cold War, as each country has tried to expand its influence. This rivalry was suspended through Chinese mediation in March 2023. But since October 2023, the War of Israel and Iran has expanded both in ordinary and asymmetric means, a conflict that now threatens to define the Middle East Trajectory for the coming years.

Regardless of whether this confrontation is increasing, it is now mainly dependent on one person: Ajatolla Ali Khamene. If Iran’s highest leader comes to consider the survival of the Islamic Republic as a fundamentally endangered, Tehran’s reaction could expand far beyond the territory of Israel.

In recent months, Israeli leaders had declared repeated warnings that the strike on Iran’s nuclear equipment has been inevitable. Intelligence evaluations in Tel Aviv have stated that Iran was only a week away from purchasing the necessary components to create nuclear weapons. Although this requirement was challenged by other members of the international community, it still formed the decision of Israel to act military.

At the same time, there were indirect talks between Iran and the US, focusing on limiting Iranian uranium enrichment and reducing tension through a revised nuclear agreement. US President Donald Trump publicly supported these diplomatic efforts, describing them as desirable than what he called the potentially bloody war. However, the conversations were disturbed when Iran refused to stop the enrichment on her soil.

The US administration, although officially opposed to military exacerbation, has reportedly been silently confirming a limited Israeli strike. It is argued that Washington has believed that such a strike can change the balance in the conversation and send the message that Iran has not talked from the state of force – similar to how Trump has framed Ukraine’s position on Russia. Although US officials say they had advanced attacks on attacks but did not participate promptly, the US delivered both aircraft and bunker -breaking balls, the last Trump during the first term.

Preliminary Iranian source reports confirm that strikes caused significant damage to centrifuge drugs and enrichment pipelines at its Natanz site. However, Iranian officials insist that the nuclear program is still intact. Iran’s nuclear infrastructure includes several deep buried areas – a few more than 500 meters (550 yards) underground and spreads at distances above 1000 km (620 miles). As a result, the complete destruction of the program using only air strikes at this initial stage seems unlikely.

Iranian officials have long warned that any Israeli direct military aggression will cross the red line in their territory and have promised a severe revenge. Now, with the blood spilled on its soil and the destroyed main goals, Khamene has a huge internal and external pressure to respond. The elimination of several high -ranking military officials has further intensified demand for a versatile reaction.

Another wave of drone attacks has taken place so far, similar to those launched in April and October, most of which were intercepted by the defense of Israel and Jordan.

If Iran is not involved in the upcoming talks in the US on Sunday about a possible nuclear deal, the failure of diplomacy could mark the onset of a long campaign. The Iranian government has stated that it does not consider Israel’s operation as an isolated incident, but as a longer -time conflict. Referring to it as a “Wear War”, Termin, also used to describe the decisive war of Iran with Iraq in the 1980s-Framework individuals have stated that the confrontation may expand in a week or even months.

While anti -producing rockets and drone strikes for Israel’s purposes may continue, many now expect Iran to target US military bases in the Gulf, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and even in Jordan. Such an escalation would probably allow us to get directly into the conflict, related critical regional infrastructure and disrupt global oil supplies, especially with the Hormuza Strait. This, in turn, could lead to a rapid increase in energy prices and send the world market spiral – retraction in the interest of almost every major power.

Even if the immediate, proportional military reaction turns out to be complicated, Iran is expected to act in several areas, including cyber attacks, credentials and political maneuvering. Among the political capabilities, it is reported to be a complete removal of nuclear weapons (NPT). Iran has long used the NPT system to claim that its nuclear program is calm. Exit from the contract would signal a significant change in policy. In addition, in Iran’s political circles, speculation is increasing to rethink the religious decree of Khamene, which prohibits the development and use of nuclear weapons. If this ban is canceled, Iran could first detect preventive nuclear weapons.

Whether Israel’s strikes managed to delay Iran’s nuclear ambitions – instead provoked Tehran to speed up them – it is still unclear. It is clear that the confrontation has reached a new stage. If Iran exits the NPT and start developing its nuclear program without the restrictions on international agreements, some may say that the Israeli campaign for stopping the ball may eventually speed up its creation.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author himself and do not always reflect the position of Al Jazeera’s editorial staff.