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The level of US exceptionalism seems hard to dismiss at this point


New York Stock Exchange on November 21, 2024 in New York.

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images News | Getty Images

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open helps investors learn everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

What you need to know today

US markets take a breather
The
S&P 500 fell by 0.19%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.55% and Nasdaq Composite as traders retreated 0.18%. look forward to today’s work report. European regional Stoxx 600 increased by 0.4%. sixth day of victories in a row. of France CAC 40 rose 0.37% even though the country’s government was overthrown in a vote of no confidence.

What to expect from the US job report
US non-farm payrolls for November will be released later today. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect the U.S. economy to improve after a shockingly low 12,000 jobs in October, largely due to disruptions from hurricanes and strikes. added 214,000 jobs in November. The October figure could also be revised higher.

OPEC+ extends oil supply cut
The OPEC+ alliance of oil producers will postpone canceling plans several formal and voluntary production cuts in 2026, according to the delegate sources, who could only speak on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the negotiations. Oil prices rose slightly after the news.

An unlikely confirmation of Bitcoin
Thursday, bitcoin broke the $100,000 barrier, although that has since happened retreated from this level to about $96,500. Although the initial euphoria may have been caused by the idea of ​​US President-elect Donald Trump nomination Paul Atkins for Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell comments sentiment was also boosted by Bitcoin being a “competitor to gold”.

(PRO) Bitcoin is the new gold?
Gold has long held a place in investors’ portfolios as an asset that protects against market volatility and geopolitical instability. Now bitcoin, with its rapid rise in popularity and price, especially in recent months, could takes over the role of goldaccording to strategists.

The bottom line

The US economy and financial markets seem to be firing on all cylinders.

While the major US indices fell yesterday, when viewed in the context of this week’s performance, it looks like a bit of a pause after hitting several record closing levels.

According to banking analysts, US stocks could continue to hit new highs in the future.

“For the SPX, we believe the index will end 2025 in the 6,500-6,700 range,” said Scott Verren, senior global market strategist. Wells Fargowrote in a Wednesday note. At the high end of Wren’s estimate, that represents a 10% gain from Thursday’s close.

If that scenario holds true for the S&P 500, it would mark the third straight year the broad-based index has risen. The S&P is up 27.6% year-to-date, the second-biggest annual gain of the 21st century, according to the data. Deutsche Bank.

The strength of the US stock market is more surprising compared to its European counterpart.

“MAGA policy expectations combined with Goldilocks data have revived bullish spirits in US stocks. In contrast, Europe remains on the back foot amid stagnant growth, tariff threats and a political crisis in France,” Barclays wrote on Wednesday. “It is difficult to see an end to the US exception anytime soon, and we think this will still be the scenario in 2025.”

The US economy shows no signs of slowing either. Federal Reserve System of Atlanta forecasts The growth of the US economy in the fourth quarter reached 3.3% in annual terms. That’s a slight increase from the 3.2% estimate earlier this week and higher than 2.8% increase in the third quarter.

Employment is the engine that drives most aspects of the economy. The November employment report due out today will give investors more insight into whether US economic and financial growth can continue ahead.

— CNBC’s Jesse Pound, Lisa Kailai Han and Sean Conlon contributed to this report.



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